22 April 2024
Where are we in the Cycle?
Of the five PortfolioDirect cyclical guideposts, two are flashing
‘amber’ and three have turned ‘red’. Sluggish pre-pandemic productivity
growth, now exacerbated by war in Europe, intensifying trade restrictions
and reversal of the post-2020 central bank liquidity surge, has re-emerged
as a constraint on raw material demand expansion. Chinese growth momentum
has been on a weakening trend. A rising US dollar, one previously overt
negative factor, has stalled after a modest reversal of prior gains. Metal
market supply anxieties have become less severe. The cyclical positioning
has been characterised as a ‘downswing’ phase.
More...
Market Directions
Withdrawal of unprecedentedly supportive monetary and fiscal conditions
and erosion of the value of income and savings by surging inflation have
stemmed speculative capital flows connected to retail investors.
Professional money, by continuing to discount a recession, has provided some
market relief but surging costs of capital are placing a cap on equity
values. While heavily hyped energy storage innovations are stoking sector
interest, they are yet to affect metal demand meaningfully. Metal price risk
premiums have risen without correspondingly beneficial impacts on related
equity valuations. New tax incentives are diverting capital for mine
development and downstream processing capacity to sponsoring nations.
Persistence of a 1990s-style investment performance - when modest sector
equity price gains occurred in the midst of sometimes highly disruptive
macro conditions - remains the underlying theme.
More...
Portfolio Performance and Positioning
The majority of stocks across all three development categories lost
ground in the past week after a period of relatively strong gains. Once
more, the largest positive moves came from stocks with historically
depressed prices. A dearth of discovery success and persistent
macroeconomic constraints on capital flows remain drags on performance for
the bulk of the sector . Phase I returns would likely display the greatest
leverage to eventual monetary policy easing. Although further along the
development path and closer to profitability, Phase II companies carry risks
arising from relatively high indebtedness and heavy reliance on execution
success in sometimes unfamiliar markets and untested management.
Performance within the Phase III category is more likely to be driven by
capital allocations responding to longer term views of changing macro
conditions and cross sector valuations, both primary concerns of
institutional fund managers.
More...
Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk
attributes of proposed mineral developments. Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of
development. PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating
scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments
or companies.
More...
The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on
the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks.
More...