Where are we in the Cycle?
Four guideposts are now "flashing amber" after the recent swing in sentiment about global prospects offered a fresh "red" warning sign.  Sluggish productivity growth, exacerbated by war in Europe, intensifying trade restrictions and ongoing central bank worries about inflation, have been a continuing constraint on raw material demand expansion. Global monetary conditions are only slowly becoming less restrictive.  Metal market supply anxieties have dissipated. US dollar strength has given way to a more neutral influence on prices.  Overall, the guideposts are suggesting a low point in the cycle without yet displaying conclusive signs of a  cyclical turn.   More...

Market Directions
The constraints on capital flows connecting retail equity investors to the riskiest end of the market have loosened over the past three months adding to the flows of professional money which, having discounted a recession and been unaffected by inflationary pressures, had been supporting the most growth oriented and well-established businesses in the industry. Heavily hyped energy storage innovations are yet to affect metal demand as meaningfully as once expected.  Higher metal price risk premiums, where evident, have struggled to impact related equity valuations.   The first crack in the 1990s-style investment performance - when modest sector equity price gains occurred in the midst of sometimes highly disruptive macro conditions - has appeared.  More...

Portfolio Performance and Positioning
The relative strength of the Phase II category persisted for a further week as several of the stocks in this group made inroads into earlier heavy losses.  Negative returns in the Phase I and Phase III categories came despite the majority of their constituents making gains. While stocks in the Phase I category had began a recovery from deeply depressed prices during the third quarter of 2025, the biggest hindrance to their ongoing investment performance remains a continuing dearth of mineral discoveries. Performance of companies in the Phase II development category remains under pressure, despite their demonstrable production potential and expected proximity to profits, as relatively high indebtedness and heavy reliance on execution success in sometimes unfamiliar markets test often unproven management.  The Phase III category, although comprising companies with stronger commercial credentials and a less volatile returns profile, is the group most sensitive to capital allocation decisions among institutional fund managers responding to changing sector valuations and relative macro growth expectations.   More...

Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis 
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk attributes of proposed mineral developments.  Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of development.  PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments or companies.    
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The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks. More...