Where are we in the Cycle?
All five PortfolioDirect cyclical guideposts are flashing ‘amber’ with the Chinese growth momentum the last indicator to switch from ‘red’ after stabilising in the latter half of 2024. Global monetary conditions are only slowly becoming less restrictive. Sluggish productivity growth, exacerbated by war in Europe, intensifying trade restrictions and ongoing central bank worries about inflation, have been a continuing constraint on raw material demand expansion. Metal market supply anxieties have dissipated. US dollar strength remains a negative influence on prices.  The guideposts are suggesting a low point in the cycle without yet offering the necessary signs of a conclusive cyclical turn.    More...

Market Directions
Capital flows connected to retail equity investors remain constrained by the continuing impact of prior inflation on household savings and income. Professional money, by continuing to discount a recession, has provided market relief for the most growth oriented and well-established businesses.  Heavily hyped energy storage innovations are yet to affect metal demand as meaningfully as once expected.  Nor have higher metal price risk premiums, where evident, had a correspondingly beneficial impact on related equity valuations.  New tax incentives are diverting capital for mine development and downstream processing capacity to sponsoring nations. Persistence of a 1990s-style investment performance - when modest sector equity price gains occurred in the midst of sometimes highly disruptive macro conditions - remains the underlying theme.   More...

Portfolio Performance and Positioning
A majority of stocks in each of the three development categories produced moderately negative returns in the past week, despite positive outcomes for a wide range of commodity prices affecting industry profitability.  Gradually easing pressures on household budgets, including more favourable inflation outcomes, had been benefitting early stage companies since late 2024 although a continuing dearth of mineral discovery success has remained the most potent hindrance to their performance.  Performance of companies in the Phase II development category have lagged despite demonstrable production potential and expected proximity to profits, due to risks arising from relatively high indebtedness and heavy reliance on execution success in sometimes unfamiliar markets and untested management. The Phase III category, although less volatile, is the most sensitive to capital allocation decisions among institutional fund managers responding to changing sector valuations and relative macro growth expectations.    More...

Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis 
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk attributes of proposed mineral developments.  Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of development.  PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments or companies.    
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The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks. More...