Where are we in the Cycle?
Four guideposts are now "flashing amber" suggesting a transition from unfavourable conditions to the onset of more favourable cyclical outcomes. Sluggish productivity growth, exacerbated by war in Europe and the middle east, intensifying trade restrictions and ongoing central bank worries about inflation, have been a continuing constraint on raw material demand expansion.  Near term metal market supply anxieties have dissipated. US dollar strength has given way to a more neutral influence on prices.  Global monetary conditions have slowly become less restrictive to the point that they have taken the next step toward offering modest cyclical support.  Overall, the guideposts are suggesting moderately more favourable cyclical outcomes without yet displaying the full array of signs consistent with a durable or prolonged price cycle.      More...

Market Directions
The constraints on capital flows connecting retail equity investors to companies at the earliest development stages have loosened considerably, with gold related companies continuing to dominate funding access. Energy transition themes continue to support flows of professional money to the most growth oriented and well-established businesses in the industry. Heavily hyped energy storage innovations have not affected industry economics as meaningfully as once expected but metal price risk premiums are finally impacting related equity valuations.   The first crack in the 1990s-style investment performance - characterised by modest sector equity price gains in the midst of sometimes highly disruptive macro conditions - has appeared.    More...

Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Both Phase I and Phase II categories lost ground in the past week, with a majority of stocks in each group posting losses, while a large majority of constituents pushed the Phase III group higher.  While Phase I stocks had began a recovery from deeply depressed prices during the third quarter of 2025, a persistent dearth of mineral discoveries has continued to hinder a more consistent valuation uplift, despite a more solid overall market tone.  At the same time, sometimes weak balance sheets and heavy reliance on execution success continue to challenge often unproven management in Phase II stocks despite their demonstrable production potential and expected proximity to profits.  The Phase III category, although comprising companies with the strongest commercial credentials, is the group most sensitive to capital allocation decisions among institutional fund managers responding to changing sector valuations and competing macro growth assessments.  More...

Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis 
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk attributes of proposed mineral developments.  Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of development.  PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments or companies.    
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The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks. More...