Where are we in the Cycle?
All five PortfolioDirect cyclical guideposts are flashing ‘amber’ with the Chinese growth momentum the last indicator to switch from ‘red’ after stabilising in the latter half of 2024. Global monetary conditions are only slowly becoming less restrictive. Sluggish productivity growth, exacerbated by war in Europe, intensifying trade restrictions and ongoing central bank worries about inflation, have been a continuing constraint on raw material demand expansion. Metal market supply anxieties have dissipated. US dollar strength has given way to a more neutral influence on prices.  The guideposts are suggesting a low point in the cycle without yet offering the necessary signs of a conclusive cyclical turn.  More...

Market Directions
Capital flows connected to retail equity investors remain constrained by the continuing impact of prior inflation on household savings and income. Professional money, having discounted a recession until now, has provided market relief for the most growth oriented and well-established businesses although emerging trade rivalries are threatening a reversal.  Heavily hyped energy storage innovations are yet to affect metal demand as meaningfully as once expected.  Nor have higher metal price risk premiums, where evident, had a correspondingly beneficial impact on related equity valuations.   Persistence of a 1990s-style investment performance - when modest sector equity price gains occurred in the midst of sometimes highly disruptive macro conditions - remains the underlying theme.   More...

Portfolio Performance and Positioning
President Trump’s delay in implementing punitive tariffs, directed at reversing US trade imbalances, benefitted equity prices.  Unsurprisingly, the companies benefitting most had suffered the largest losses in the prior week. The tariff-related price action has come just as easing pressures on household budgets had started to encourage speculative market flows, although a continuing dearth of mineral discovery success has remained the most potent hindrance to the performance of the earliest stage companies.  Performance of companies in the Phase II development category remain under pressure, despite demonstrable production potential and expected proximity to profits, due to risks arising from relatively high indebtedness and heavy reliance on execution success in sometimes unfamiliar markets and untested management. The Phase III category, although less volatile, is the most sensitive to capital allocation decisions among institutional fund managers responding to changing sector valuations and relative macro growth expectations.     More...

Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis 
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk attributes of proposed mineral developments.  Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of development.  PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments or companies.    
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The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks. More...