Where are we in the Cycle?
Four guideposts are now "flashing amber" suggesting a transition from unfavourable conditions to the onset of more favourable cyclical outcomes. Sluggish productivity growth, exacerbated by war in Europe, intensifying trade restrictions and ongoing central bank worries about inflation, have been a continuing constraint on raw material demand expansion.  Near term metal market supply anxieties have dissipated. US dollar strength has given way to a more neutral influence on prices.  Global monetary conditions have slowly become less restrictive to the point that they have taken the next step toward offering modest cyclical support.  Overall, the guideposts are suggesting moderately more favourable cyclical outcomes without yet displaying the full array of signs consistent with a durable or prolonged price cycle.     More...

Market Directions
The constraints on capital flows connecting retail equity investors to the riskiest end of the market have loosened considerably adding to the flows of professional money which, having been unaffected by sticky inflationary outcomes or the risk of recession, had been supporting the most growth oriented and well-established businesses in the industry. Heavily hyped energy storage innovations are yet to affect metal demand as meaningfully as once expected.  Metal price risk premiums are finally impacting related equity valuations.   The first crack in the 1990s-style investment performance - when modest sector equity price gains occurred in the midst of sometimes highly disruptive macro conditions - has appeared.   More...

Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Phase II stocks were especially active, in both directions, in the past week to produce a net positive group return.  Otherwise, overall results were mixed.  While Phase I stocks had began a recovery from deeply depressed prices during the third quarter of 2025, a continuing dearth of mineral discoveries remains the biggest hindrance to a more consistent valuation uplift. Phase II stocks have remained under pressure, despite their demonstrable production potential and expected proximity to profits, as weak balance sheets and heavy reliance on execution success in sometimes unfamiliar markets test often unproven management.  The Phase III category, although comprising companies with stronger commercial credentials and a less volatile returns profile, is the group most sensitive to capital allocation decisions among institutional fund managers responding to changing sector valuations and competing macro growth expectations.     More...

Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis 
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk attributes of proposed mineral developments.  Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of development.  PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments or companies.    
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The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks. More...