Where are we in the Cycle?
All five PortfolioDirect cyclical guideposts are flashing ‘amber’ with the Chinese growth momentum the last indicator to switch from ‘red’ after stabilising in the latter half of 2024. Global monetary conditions are only slowly becoming less restrictive. Sluggish productivity growth, exacerbated by war in Europe, intensifying trade restrictions and ongoing central bank worries about inflation, have been a continuing constraint on raw material demand expansion. Metal market supply anxieties have dissipated. US dollar strength remains a negative influence on prices.  The guideposts are suggesting a low point in the cycle without yet offering the necessary signs of a conclusive cyclical turn.    More...

Market Directions
Capital flows connected to retail equity investors remain constrained by the continuing impact of prior inflation on household savings and income. Professional money, by continuing to discount a recession, has provided market relief for the most growth oriented and well-established businesses.  Heavily hyped energy storage innovations are yet to affect metal demand as meaningfully as once expected.  Nor have higher metal price risk premiums, where evident, had a correspondingly beneficial impact on related equity valuations.  New tax incentives are diverting capital for mine development and downstream processing capacity to sponsoring nations. Persistence of a 1990s-style investment performance - when modest sector equity price gains occurred in the midst of sometimes highly disruptive macro conditions - remains the underlying theme.   More...

Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Phase I stock prices continued their rise in the past week, albeit at a slower pace, as individual investors have appeared ready to embrace greater risk. Companies at more advanced stages of development have fared less well.  Gradually easing pressures on household budgets, including more favourable inflation outcomes have benefitted early stage companies although a continuing dearth of mineral discovery success remains the most potent hindrance to performance.  Companies in the Phase II development category have been unable to achieve similar rates of return, despite demonstrable production potential and expected proximity to profits, due to risks arising from relatively high indebtedness and heavy reliance on execution success in sometimes unfamiliar markets and untested management. The Phase III category is the most sensitive to capital allocation decisions among institutional fund managers responding to changing sector valuations and relative macro growth expectations.      More...

Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis 
PortfolioDirect rating reports analyse the quality and risk attributes of proposed mineral developments.  Rating criteria apply to mining and oil and gas stocks at any stage of development.  PortfolioDirect uses a five point rating scale to measure the risk adjusted quality of proposed mineral developments or companies.    
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The 'Steak or Sizzle' blog provides summary judgements on the top performing ASX-listed resources stocks. More...