Report Date: 5 October 2015
Where are we in the Cycle?
Helped by another possible delay in a Fed interest rate rise, a weaker
US dollar was a help to commodity prices at the end of the week but left the
cyclical downtrend in prices intact. There was more evidence of a loss of
European growth momentum.
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Market Directions
Equity markets appear to have lost their sense of direction with global
growth, corporate profits and policy all languishing in no man’s land
between what had been and what is to come. US labour market conditions,
offering the prospect of a longer period of monetary accommodation, ended up
dominating the outcome for the week.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
There were no changes to the portfolio models. The Phase I model
benefited from having included Lucapa Diamond Company. The 1.4% gain in
September for the macro model was 11 percentage points better than its
benchmark. Cash holdings remained elevated.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
Mincor Resources (MCR:AU) is putting in place a growth
platform for the future it may not survive long enough to enjoy. Mincor is
a Phase IV company with a declining output profile as its resources are
exhausted facing the prospect of costs remaining above its selling price.
Despite a historically strong operational and financial track record, Mincor
faces the prospect of having to close its existing mines to await better
conditions. Ironically, Mincor will probably retain an investor following
as it becomes one of the companies most leveraged to a cyclical improvement
in nickel market conditions.
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