Report Date: 9 November 2015


Where are we in the Cycle?
 More signs of metal price weakness came after good economic news in the USA confirmed the likelihood of further rises in the U.S. dollar (and consequential downward pressure on U.S. dollar denominated commodity prices). Updated copper market modelling has raised the prospect of a possibly larger than anticipated build-up in inventories over coming years.    More...

Market Directions
Equity markets appeared to take a strong monthly U.S. employment increase in their stride in contrast to the near panic reaction evident on earlier occasions on which fears arose about a Federal Reserve interest rate rise.    More...

Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Sector prices began to edge lower. Model portfolio positions were reduced in several stocks that had shown strong recent performance and appeared most at risk of at least a partial retracement in their prices. The macro model cash position was rebuilt as a consequence having been lowered in recent prior weeks.    More...

Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis 
Perseus Mining (PRU:AU) is a relatively mature Phase II company having a well-established production base with growth opportunities in the foreseeable future. The PortfolioDirect valuation analysis points to its asset value exceeding the market value of the company with positive value momentum in future years to underpin market returns.  In common with many companies in the sector, the valuation is very sensitive to movements in the gold price with only a very modest fall pushing the valuation beneath the current market value highlighting a reason for the reticence among investors to extrapolate current profit margins into share prices.      
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DAILY BRIEFING: The PortfolioDirect market diary offers brief thoughts on current issues affecting sector investment strategies.

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