Where are we in the Cycle?
Large commodity price rises left the metal price cycle in much the same position as it had been for several months as the rises recovered only a tiny proportion of lost ground.  A further global growth downgrade from the IMF left the sector at risk of having to reduce its estimates of raw material demand.        More...

Market Directions
There were no fundamental improvements to warrant higher commodity and equity prices during the week with markets appearing to react to the Federal Reserve decision not to raise interest rates.  Without a firmer base, the greater willingness to buy risk is unlikely to persist.        More...

Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Large market gains were reflected in double digit percentage increases in all three portfolio segments.  The large cash holding meant the macro portfolio model underperformed the benchmark (just as it had outperformed strongly in September while the market was weakening).  Several stocks were re-weighted to take account of price changes.  More...

Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis 
Antilles Oil and Gas (AVD:AU) has lined up funding for a Peruvian onshore oil exploration property.  Onshore exploration comes at a fraction of the cost of offshore drilling but also offers a binary outcome which suggests that a portfolio of opportunities is the best course for an investor with the right risk appetite.  The Antilles Oil and Gas rating review has been updated recently.      
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