Report Date: 15 February 2016
Where are we in the Cycle?
Despite upbeat economic indicators, U.S. companies are facing a sales
recession. Policies to weaken the yen have had the reverse effect. Despite
all the pessimism about global growth, the strongest global equity market
segment so far in February has been basic materials as sector performances
converge.
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Market Directions
Oversold markets partially recovered at the end of the week but remain
at risk of the same combination of uncertainties. Global growth rates
remain insufficient to lift corporate earnings by enough to push equity
prices higher. Gold prices have not broken from their three year
downtrend.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Stock returns for the PortfolioDirect portfolios largely reflected
broader market moves lower. Declining stocks heavily outweighed the number
rising. There were no additions or deletions and cash positions remain
high.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
The Potash West NL (PWN:AU) GLOSS quality score within the
PortfolioDirect rating process has been raised. The
critical change warranting the upgrade for the company developing the
Dandaragan phosphate and potash deposits in Western Australia has been the
doubling of the anticipated mine life to 40 years for an asset toward the
upper end of available operational lives in the sector. The company
continues to advance its longer term value proposition. No single event
expected in the near term is likely to achieve a discrete change in market
price. This is more likely to come with the longer term accumulation of
evidence that the Dandaragan project is viable and capable of being funded.
From a portfolio perspective, there are grounds to recognise the company as
an agricultural-oriented investment enabling reduced exposure to mineral
commodities relying on GDP growth and enhanced portfolio diversification
characteristics in a resources portfolio. .
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