Report Date: 25 April 2016
Where are we in the Cycle?
Metal prices have been rallying as the U.S. dollar has turned down.
Without supportive global growth momentum, the mining industry will have to
rely on a continuation of unlikely exchange rate movements for ongoing
improvement in metal prices.
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Market Directions
Market corrections remain complicated by the oil price movements and
central bank policies with upcoming meetings of the BOJ and Fed having
disrupted markets at the end of the week looking for guidance from the
latest quarterly earnings reports from S&P500 companies.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
A strong rally has extended through the resource sector with 239 stocks
listed on the ASX having risen by 20% or more since the beginning of
January. Phase I and Phase III stocks appear to have been the clearest
beneficiaries of the change in sentiment with the Phase II stocks most in
need of funding lagging the rest.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
BHP Billiton (BHP:AU) has held out the prospect of productivity gains
underwriting future income growth if the Australian government supports
changes to its industrial relations laws. BHP may as well forget about
productivity sourced profits if it needs the government to act. Australian
political parties no longer have the appetite to engage so directly in
workplace arrangements. Moreover, BHP has shown its reluctance to state
explicitly what it wants and what impact the changes it wants will have in
the workplace. In the absence of its willingness of to lead, no government
will fill the void.
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