Report Date: 25 July 2016
Where are we in the Cycle?
There has been no change in the assessment of cyclical positioning with
global growth momentum - the single most important ingredient for any
cyclical improvement - still absent.
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Market Directions
Corporate earnings and supportive liquidity conditions have returned as
influential market factors but resource sector equities are showing signs of
running out of steam for the time being.
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Portfolio Performance and Positioning
Phase III stocks lost ground but selected Phase II stocks have shown
relative strength coming from positions of prolonged poor performance. In
the absence of improved cyclical conditions, high macro model cash positions
have been retained.
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Stock Reviews and Rating Analysis
Kidman Resources (KDR:AU) and Silver City Resources
(SCI:AU) have both been diverted from credible strategic plans by
the allure of lithium. Kidman Resources had a well defined gold exploration
and mine development strategy. Silver City Resources was embarking on a
zinc/silver strategy around Broken Hill. While both received positive
initial market reactions to announcements about lithium exploration
initiatives, the beneficial price effects have not been sustained as
scepticism about the near term investment returns from lithium has grown.
Now, the strategic plans of both companies risk confusing investors as the
companies must once again define credible development priorities.
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